The Rough Report

Welcome back to the first Thursday edition of The Gridiron Gambler. Each week, I lock in my Thursday Night NFL Play of the Night and give an early look at my college football slate as lines start to take shape midweek.

Thursday Night NFL Play of the Night

Game: Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
Play: Rams -2 (Teased) / Saints +5.5

• Rams -2 (Teaser Leg): This line has shot up throughout the week, but I still believe there’s value in getting the Rams at -2 in a teaser spot. San Francisco is banged up, and the Rams offense has been clicking. At this number, the Rams just need to take care of business at home.
• Saints +5.5 (Teaser Leg): Pairing the Rams with New Orleans on Sunday. This is a buy-low spot for the Saints, who are still hunting for their first win. They face a Giants team led by Dart in his first road start, and they’ll be without Malik Nabers for the rest of the season. I see this as a game the Saints can win outright, and at +5.5, we have protection if it stays close.

Early NCAA Football Slate

Most of my CFB picks start shaping up Wednesday–Thursday, and I’ve got a few early positions this week.

High-Risk, High-Reward Teaser (+350)

7-Point Teaser:

• Mississippi State +21
• Miami +2.5
• BYU -12.5
• James Madison -13
• Texas +0.5

This one is not for the faint of heart—it’s a “too many legs” teaser with +350 odds. Mississippi State and BYU feel solid in these spots, while Texas and Miami are the question marks. Still, the value is worth the risk.

Other NCAA Plays

• Louisville -7 vs Virginia
  Pure letdown spot for Virginia after their huge upset last week. Louisville remains undefeated and pushing for Top 25 consideration. Safer play might be the ML, but I’ll take them to cover here.
• App State -1 vs Oregon State
  They burned me last week, but I’m back on them in a buy-low spot. Only a 0.5-unit play—confidence is lower—but Oregon State has been dreadful.
• Western Michigan -13.5
  Strong spot for WMU against an overmatched opponent.
• Western Kentucky/Delaware Over 61.5
  Expecting offensive fireworks here. Both sides can score, and pace should push this over.
• Purdue +10 vs Illinois
  Classic lookahead spot. Illinois has Ohio State next week and could overlook Purdue. The Boilermakers are coming off a bye, and I see them live to win outright as my upset of the week.
• UNLV/Wyoming Under 50.5
  Two teams who want to run and slow the game down. I’ll take the under.
• Alabama -10 vs Vanderbilt
  Alabama looked like vintage Nick Saban last week vs Georgia. Now they return home to Bryant-Denny with revenge on their mind. Diego Pavia is getting too much respect here—I expect Bama to dominate.
• North Carolina +14 vs Clemson
  UNC is inconsistent, but 14 is too many points. Clemson could pull away, but I see the Heels keeping this competitive.
• Charlotte +27 vs USF
  A numbers play. Charlotte’s offense has enough fight to sneak inside the big number.
• Mississippi State +14 vs Texas A&M
  Bulldogs are undervalued. Getting two full touchdowns in this matchup is worth a play.

Final Thoughts

• Best Bet (NFL): Rams -2 / Saints +5.5 (Teaser)
• Upset Alert (NCAA): Purdue +10 (with ML sprinkle)
• High-Risk, High-Reward: 5-leg teaser at +350

The board this week sets up with several spots where teams are being overlooked or undervalued. As always, bankroll management is key—scale your units accordingly.

Stay sharp, and let’s cash some tickets.

– The Gridiron Gambler